- Find NBA odds, point spreads, and betting lines for the 2020-2021 basketball season. Visit FOXSports.com for this week's top action!
- A 4-point underdog in the NBA would have a money line listed at about +150. What this means is that you would win $150 for every $100 wagered on this team if they were to win the game outright. Converting NBA Spreads to Their True Money Lines. What I'm really interested in is whether or not money line betting in the NBA is profitable.
- Get the latest NBA odds, spreads and betting lines from this week's games, as well as full coverage of the National Basketball Association from USA TODAY.
- Free NBA Picks Against the Spread. When you want to bet on an elite team but don't want to risk $600 or more to win $100, our expert NBA picks against the spread are the way to go. NBA betting against the spread means you're wagering not only on a team to win, but also to win by a certain amount of points.
In other words, the NBA bettor must have more than 52.4% winning chances on any given point spread bet to turn a profit. According to TeamRankings.com, from 2003 to November 2018, only 2 NBA teams managed to cover the spread overall beyond that 52.4% threshold: the San Antonio Spurs (52.9%) and the Golden State Warriors (52.7%).
There are sports in which the Cinderella story is every fan's delight. Basketball is not one of them.
Not only do fans want to see established hoops heroes collect championships, but bettors tend to pick favorites a lot more than the underdogs…especially newbie gamblers.
Many people see teams favored to prevail by a set number of points, and instantly think that the team is a lock. They focus on whether or not the favorites will cover the points, disregarding that the underdog could finish on top on the scoreboard altogether.
It should come as no surprise that as a team is favored to out-score its opponent by greater points, the higher the probability becomes that they will prevail outright. Before you look at the charts (if you haven't already), guess which percentage among favorited teams triumph when they are favored by 3.5 points. Once you have that number, look below at our table and see if you were close. Most of the general public will completely overshoot the %.
NBA Moneyline Conversion – Implied Outright Winning % by Spread
| Favorite | ML | Winning % | Underdog | ML | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | -115 | 51.10% | 1 | -104 | 48.90% |
| -1.5 | -121 | 52.30% | 1.5 | -100 | 47.70% |
| -2 | -132 | 54.30% | 2 | +109 | 45.70% |
| -2.5 | -143 | 56.30% | 2.5 | +118 | 43.70% |
| -3 | -156 | 58.20% | 3 | +129 | 41.80% |
| -3.5 | -170 | 60.10% | 3.5 | +140 | 39.90% |
| -4 | -184 | 61.90% | 4 | +150 | 38.10% |
| -4.5 | -199 | 63.60% | 4.5 | +162 | 36.40% |
| -5 | -222 | 65.80% | 5 | +179 | 34.20% |
| -5.5 | -247 | 68.00% | 5.5 | +198 | 32.00% |
| -6 | -276 | 70.10% | 6 | +219 | 29.90% |
| -6.5 | -309 | 72.10% | 6.5 | +243 | 27.90% |
| -7 | -349 | 74.20% | 7 | +270 | 25.80% |
| -7.5 | -397 | 76.30% | 7.5 | +302 | 23.70% |
| -8 | -458 | 78.40% | 8 | +341 | 21.60% |
| -8.5 | -536 | 80.50% | 8.5 | +388 | 19.50% |
| -9 | -656 | 82.80% | 9 | +456 | 17.20% |
| -9.5 | -832 | 85.20% | 9.5 | +545 | 14.80% |
| -10 | -1069 | 87.30% | 10 | +651 | 12.70% |
- Find NBA odds, point spreads, and betting lines for the 2020-2021 basketball season. Visit FOXSports.com for this week's top action!
- A 4-point underdog in the NBA would have a money line listed at about +150. What this means is that you would win $150 for every $100 wagered on this team if they were to win the game outright. Converting NBA Spreads to Their True Money Lines. What I'm really interested in is whether or not money line betting in the NBA is profitable.
- Get the latest NBA odds, spreads and betting lines from this week's games, as well as full coverage of the National Basketball Association from USA TODAY.
- Free NBA Picks Against the Spread. When you want to bet on an elite team but don't want to risk $600 or more to win $100, our expert NBA picks against the spread are the way to go. NBA betting against the spread means you're wagering not only on a team to win, but also to win by a certain amount of points.
In other words, the NBA bettor must have more than 52.4% winning chances on any given point spread bet to turn a profit. According to TeamRankings.com, from 2003 to November 2018, only 2 NBA teams managed to cover the spread overall beyond that 52.4% threshold: the San Antonio Spurs (52.9%) and the Golden State Warriors (52.7%).
There are sports in which the Cinderella story is every fan's delight. Basketball is not one of them.
Not only do fans want to see established hoops heroes collect championships, but bettors tend to pick favorites a lot more than the underdogs…especially newbie gamblers.
Many people see teams favored to prevail by a set number of points, and instantly think that the team is a lock. They focus on whether or not the favorites will cover the points, disregarding that the underdog could finish on top on the scoreboard altogether.
It should come as no surprise that as a team is favored to out-score its opponent by greater points, the higher the probability becomes that they will prevail outright. Before you look at the charts (if you haven't already), guess which percentage among favorited teams triumph when they are favored by 3.5 points. Once you have that number, look below at our table and see if you were close. Most of the general public will completely overshoot the %.
NBA Moneyline Conversion – Implied Outright Winning % by Spread
| Favorite | ML | Winning % | Underdog | ML | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | -115 | 51.10% | 1 | -104 | 48.90% |
| -1.5 | -121 | 52.30% | 1.5 | -100 | 47.70% |
| -2 | -132 | 54.30% | 2 | +109 | 45.70% |
| -2.5 | -143 | 56.30% | 2.5 | +118 | 43.70% |
| -3 | -156 | 58.20% | 3 | +129 | 41.80% |
| -3.5 | -170 | 60.10% | 3.5 | +140 | 39.90% |
| -4 | -184 | 61.90% | 4 | +150 | 38.10% |
| -4.5 | -199 | 63.60% | 4.5 | +162 | 36.40% |
| -5 | -222 | 65.80% | 5 | +179 | 34.20% |
| -5.5 | -247 | 68.00% | 5.5 | +198 | 32.00% |
| -6 | -276 | 70.10% | 6 | +219 | 29.90% |
| -6.5 | -309 | 72.10% | 6.5 | +243 | 27.90% |
| -7 | -349 | 74.20% | 7 | +270 | 25.80% |
| -7.5 | -397 | 76.30% | 7.5 | +302 | 23.70% |
| -8 | -458 | 78.40% | 8 | +341 | 21.60% |
| -8.5 | -536 | 80.50% | 8.5 | +388 | 19.50% |
| -9 | -656 | 82.80% | 9 | +456 | 17.20% |
| -9.5 | -832 | 85.20% | 9.5 | +545 | 14.80% |
| -10 | -1069 | 87.30% | 10 | +651 | 12.70% |
If your guess was close to 60%, then you have a pretty good understanding of what it means for a side to be favored by only 3.5. Those of you who guessed a lot higher than 60%? Don't fret. It is a very common mistake. Now, guess what percentage of 3.5 ATS favorites actually cover. Check your answer with the table below.
Nba Spread Picks
Actual Winning Percentage by Spread in Basketball
| Favorite | Winning % | Underdog | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 45.40% | 1 | 52.00% |
| -1.5 | 48.10% | 1.5 | 51.90% |
| -2 | 49.50% | 2 | 46.70% |
| -2.5 | 46.90% | 2.5 | 53.10% |
| -3 | 48.50% | 3 | 47.20% |
| -3.5 | 46.50% | 3.5 | 53.50% |
| -4 | 52.80% | 4 | 45.30% |
| -4.5 | 50.40% | 4.5 | 49.60% |
| -5 | 46.00% | 5 | 49.50% |
| -5.5 | 51.30% | 5.5 | 48.70% |
| -6 | 50.60% | 6 | 45.80% |
| -6.5 | 50.80% | 6.5 | 49.20% |
| -7 | 47.20% | 7 | 48.10% |
| -7.5 | 52.30% | 7.5 | 47.70% |
| -8 | 53.10% | 8 | 43.80% |
| -8.5 | 50.80% | 8.5 | 49.20% |
| -9 | 50.20% | 9 | 46.40% |
| -9.5 | 51.40% | 9.5 | 48.60% |
| -10 | 44.70% | 10 | 52.80% |
It might not be a huge surprise that 3.5-point favorites only prevail in 60% of games played, but the fact that they don't even cover 50% of those games should be. Most gamblers assume that when a team has been favored at 3.5-points they are likely to cover.
In reality the underdog not only covers, but prevails on a scoreboard in 40% of contests played. The cash player can be tricked into taking small favorites because of how much the line is over-valued. If I had asked what percent of 10-point favorites prevail outright, your guess would have likely been a lot closer to the actual number.
Remember, a sporting event may pit 2 teams with disparate records and publicity. But it's still a contest between 2 opponents on the same college or professional level.
Always give the ‘dog a thorough evaluation. There's often value to be had.
Well, I decided to mess with some formula betting today in the NBA since it was a short schedule (3 games). The result so far is 2 for 2 and the third game is playing. I normally would not bring up formula betting, but it's a common thing with people who use computer predicting programs. I think a formula can help aid the sports handicapping process, but it should not be used solely. Who's to say that today's basketball betting formula will work tomorrow? Ok, let's take a peak at this NBA sports betting formula to see what it entails.
Before I continue, let me say that developing a sports betting formula that 'would' have won X games in the past is worth as much as the acid rain from the sky. No good sports bettor cares about what 'would' have happened. We only care about what will happen. Yes, I have spent hundreds of hours coming up will all sorts of formulas. Some are good aids, many are garbage. A common scenario will be you developing a great formula that would have won 61% of the games in the past. You would get excited and go bet the full schedule tomorrow only to watch your prized formula win 35% of the games. Figuring it's a fluke, you try again and again. Finally, one week later you realize that your 30-40% is as good as it gets. The point is, don't rely on some 'computerized' formula to predict real flesh and blood life.
Ok, here's the basic formula I used tonight. I will use the Boston (+9) at Miami game as my example.
- Total up the last 5 offensive and defensive point totals and average them out. Boston's offensive average was 97.6 points and their defensive average was 100.4 points. Miami's offensive average was 109.8 points and their defensive average was 100.6 points.
- Next, I look at their season averages for offense and defense. Boston's season averages were: 98.2 O and 99.9 D. Miami was 101.2 O and 96.5 D.
- Now I take the season averages and average them into the step 1 averages. This gave me the following numbers: Boston's offense: 97.9 points Boston's defense: 100.15 points Miami's offense 105.5 points Miami's defense 98.55 points.
- It's now time to simulate a match up by adding Boston's offensive average together with Miami's defensive average and vise versa. We now have the estimated score: Boston: 98.2 Miami 102.8
- According to this, Miami should be a 4.5 favorite and the total should be around 201.
Upon review of today's NBA basketball line at the sportsbook, I found that the Boston Celtics were a 9 point underdog, which is two times my formula's estimation. Since this was just a fun test, I bet the Celtics +9, which was a winner.
My second game, using this NBA betting formula, predicted the following outcome: Seattle 102.4 Philly 101.4 (total 203.8). Looking at the NBA basketball line, I found that Philly was a 7 point dog, so I bet em. The game just went final as of the start of this writing. Final Score: Seattle: 102 Philly:98 — Another win.
My last game, which is still in progress, is between Minnesota and Golden State. The NBA basketball formula predicted the score would be: Minnesota: 99 Golden State: 97 (197 total). Since Minnesota was a 7 point dog, I bet them. With about one minute to go in the third quarter, Minnesota is down by 8. Even if they drop the ball, two out of three is not bad.
How Is Point Spread Calculated
I will run the formula against tomorrow's full slate and expand further on what games were selected. I will post early so you can read well before the games start.
